Food price inflation: what's happening to grocery costs at the supermarket?

Which?'s ground-breaking supermarket inflation tracker reveals the supermarkets – and types of food and drink – with the fastest rising prices.

Overall, inflation has begun to dip after reaching one of its highest levels in more than 40 years, according to the Office for National Statistics. 

But while the rate of food price inflation is beginning to fall, it's still higher than the overall level of inflation.

Ours was the first publicly available tracker to focus solely on supermarket food and drink price inflation. We still run it regularly, analysing tens of thousands of prices to reveal:

• which supermarkets have the highest and lowest inflation;
• which types of food and drink are rising in price the fastest;
• how branded groceries compare with own-label ones; and
• whether budget ranges or more premium products are going up faster in price.

Our tracker looks at 20 popular categories of food and drink at eight supermarkets: Aldi, Asda, Lidl, Morrisons, Ocado, Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Waitrose. It compares prices across the same three-month and one-month periods year-on-year, including discounts but not multibuys or loyalty card offers. We weight the figures based on supermarket market share and the sales volume of each product category. 

• Find out more: how to spend less at the supermarket

Food inflation in February 2024

Annual inflation for the supermarket food and drink in our tracker dipped again to 6.6% in the three months to the end of February 2024. That's down from 8.5% in December, and significantly lower than its peak of 17% in the three months to the end of April 2023.

Looking at a shorter one-month period, inflation was also down, this time from 8% in December to 5.6% in February.

This graph shows how food price inflation has changed over the past year:

Two-year inflation

While year-on-year inflation is falling, it's worth bearing in mind that last year prices were already substantially higher than they were a year before that. 

For example, food prices in the three months to the end of July 2023 were 25.6% higher than they were in the same period in 2021 - but 15.3% higher year-on-year (compared to 2022).

 Which supermarket has the fastest-rising prices?

The latest figures show that products at Sainsbury's have the highest levels of inflation, with prices up 8.2% year on year in the month of February. It was followed by Tesco at 5.5%. 

This graph shows annual inflation based on three-month periods at each supermarket:

Remember, inflation is a measure of how quickly prices are rising or falling and not of absolute price. The supermarkets with the highest inflation may also be the cheapest.

• Find out more: which is the cheapest supermarket this month?

Which food types have the highest inflation?

Chocolate remains the fastest rising in price of all 20 categories in our research. Butters and spreads is the only product category that's cheaper now than last year.

This graph shows annual inflation based on three-month periods for five of the categories that originally had the highest inflation:

Are branded or own-label groceries worse for inflation?

Currently, budget-range own-label food and drink has by far the highest rate of inflation compared with other ranges, with prices up 18.2% year-on-year in the month of February.

Here are the results displayed visually, over a longer period of time:

• Find out more: supermarket convenience stores not stocking budget options, Which? reveals

Why are food prices rising?

Food prices are rising for a variety of reasons. 

Prices for feed, fertiliser and fuel, which are all needed to produce food and drink, have risen dramatically due to the war in Ukraine. 

This has been coupled with the knock-on effects of disruption during the pandemic as well as spiralling energy and labour costs. Poor harvests in Europe and North and West Africa may also have had an effect, for example with cocoa and sugar, the production of which has been hit by poor weather, disease and a decline in the number of farmers.

Bird flu has also meant fewer eggs being produced.

Meanwhile, the weaker pound is also making it more expensive to import food into the UK. 

Which? is campaigning for supermarkets to step up to help shoppers with the cost of living. Our Affordable Food For All campaign calls on supermarkets to commit to clear pricing and better access to budget ranges.

Do you want to see your supermarket take action to support you through the cost of living crisis? Sign our Affordable Food For All petition